The 60 Second Scoop

By Art Kelly | 12/06/12 1. In the month since the election, a series of polls from Rasmussen Reports indicate that Republicans have lost support from the public. Democrats are now trusted more on 9 out of 10 key issues. Prior to the election, Republicans were trusted on 7 of the 10 issues. Here are the latest results: Issue Democrats Republicans Economy 42%. 44% Health Care 51%. 37% Education 49%. 33% Energy 48% 38% Immigration 45%. 38% Social Security 49% 37% Afghanistan 44%. 39% Government Ethics 45% 35% National Security 44% 42% Taxes 45%. 43% Another Rasmussen poll found that 46% of voters thought the agenda of the Democrats in Congress was mainstream, while only 37% regarded the Republicans’ agenda as mainstream. By contrast, 41% said the Democratic agenda was extreme, while 46% said the GOP agenda was extreme. 13% of the people were not sure about the Democrats’ agenda and 17% were not sure of the Republicans’ agenda. In light of these results, it is not surprising that a different Rasmussen survey found that, if congressional elections were held today, 47% would vote for the Democratic candidate, 36% for the Republican candidate, and 17% undecided. Independents now prefer the Democrats 36% to 29% over the GOP. "This is the fourth week in a row that the Democrats have led on the generic ballot and the largest lead they have held since late August 2008…For the GOP, this is their lowest level of support since January 2009," Rasmussen Reports wrote. These poll results may have emboldened President Obama to "get tough" in his harsh demands on the "fiscal cliff" and national debt limit. 2. While considering what may be wrong with Republicans in Congress, it may be just as appropriate to ask what is wrong with the polls from Rasmussen Reports. The Talking Points Memo (TPM) website reported on a study by Dr. Costas Panagopoulos (pictured), Director of Fordham University's Department of Political Science, on the accuracy of the 28 national polls in the 2012 election. Rasmussen tied Gallup for 24th place, ahead of only National Public Radio (NPR), the National Journal, and AP/GfK. Both Rasmussen and Gallup polls had consistently shown Republicans doing better in the election than they actually did. As a result of their inaccuracies in forecasting the election outcome, it is possible Rasmussen re-calibrated their polls to give greater weight to various subgroups within their samples and could have over-compensated in their calculations. 3. A new Gallup Poll has found an incredible 23% of Republicans and 53% of Democrats have a favorable image of socialism. The accuracy of this poll may be in question, since Gallup tied Rasmussen for 24th out of 28 national polls in predicting the outcome of the recent election. The problem may have been that there was no definition given of "socialism" and the term is rarely heard in the public discourse. Some of the Republicans (and even some of the Democrats) may have thought the term meant "social issues." If it was explained that, according to the Merriam Webster Dictionary, socialism means "governmental ownership and administration of the means of production and distribution of goods," it is unlikely any Republicans would have a favorable view of that. While it is conceivable 53% of Democrats view socialism positively, it is hard to accept the possibility that 23% of Republicans do. It is more likely something was the matter with the respondents' understanding of "socialism," with the self-identification of "Republicans," or other mechanics of the poll. The previous What's Happening with Conservatives and the Tea Party: Lessons Learned in the Election The previous What's Happening with Seniors Benefits: Democrats and Republicans BOTH Wrong on Social Security Previous issues of both newsletters. Follow Art Kelly on Twitter @ArthurKellyJr Add new comment What's wrong with the conservative party? by Anonymous (not verified) Socialism by kweenb (not verified) GOP in trouble with voters by Irish 41 (not verified) Republican Party by Nancy Goff (not verified) Republicans by Anonymous (not verified) Borrowing From Social Security by Anonymous (not verified) The less massive spending and lying Presidents, the better by Anonymous (not verified) poll by WC (not verified) Why Romney lost! by John Hyland (not verified) The U.S. Constitution by Ray Luppe (not verified)

Replies

Note: this page contains paid content.

Note: this page contains paid content.

Note: this page contains paid content.

Note: this page contains paid content.

Note: this page contains paid content.

Note: this page contains paid content.

Note: this page contains paid content.

Note: this page contains paid content.